No Game is Guaranteed.

If any player on the Patriots needed to have their heads screwed on straight, all they had to do was watch the (7-9) Seattle Seahawks win a shootout against the (11-5) defending champions New Orleans Saints. The Seahawks racked 41 points against the Saints’ defense and managed to beat down one of the NFC favorites. What can be learned?

Winning on the road isn’t easy.

No game is guaranteed.

The Patriots are lucky that they slugged their way through the regular season to claim homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, meaning that Lesson #1 does not apply. However, Lesson #2 must be examined and then re-examined.

No game is guaranteed.

The Saints had spanked the Seahawks in the regular season. The Seahawks only had two wins outside of the NFC West and those were at the beginning of the season and they were demolished in every game against a strong opponent. Then the Saints marched into Qwest Stadium and the Seahawks somehow found a way to win. Teams are playing their best football right now, regardless of their regular season performance. There’s no room for error.

The Patriots are 0-0. They are starting from scratch as a do-or-die season begins. Even though the Patriots’ offense was the best in the league and the defense was playing like one of the best, none of that success matters. The Patriots just need to do their job and perform in the playoffs. There are no guarantees anymore. The Patriots need to play their error-free game of football and do their talking on the field.

Rating the 2011 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects

A week ago, I made a post about a metric I believed determined the NFL readiness of a NCAA prospect. In the comment section, OBrienSchofieldismyHero asked if I could rate some of the other potential NFL prospects. In addition to rating his lovechild Scott Tolzien, I decided to rate many of the potential draftees in the 2011 NFL Draft. Most of the players are seniors because of how few juniors have declared for the NFL Draft, but I decided to include the top Juniors. Also, even though Andrew Luck stated that he would return to Stanford, I decided to rate him as well. A lot of the scores are different from the original piece because I’ve standardized the scoring in order to keep every player on a similar scale. It has to be said that the scoring favors those players with multiple years of starting experience because that’s one of the factors of these scores- the more NCAA experience, the better chance of NFL success.

The scores do not mean that a player is a better player. It just is an indicator of how NFL ready they are. The greater the number, the less of a chance for a bust. Here’s the scoring table:

95+: Immediate NFL Star

90+: Immediate NFL Starter

85+: High Level Competitor for NFL Starter

80+: Low Level Competitor for NFL Starter

75+: Immediate NFL Back-Up

70+: High Level Competitor for NFL Back-Up

65+: Low Level Competitor for NFL Back-Up

60+: 3rd Quarterback and Roster Bubble Player

60-: Training Camp Body

Now when you look at the scores, keep in mind that the score represents where the player is at this current point in time. Andrew Luck, if drafted, would have been an NFL Starter, but I believe he would have produced at the level of an NFL Back-Up. That is not because Andrew Luck is not an NFL Starter, but because he hasn’t developed enough as a quarterback to immediately step into the NFL and produce at a high level.

Read the scores after the jump!

How to Draft an NFL Quarterback

This past semester I took a class called “The Business of Sports” where I was asked to write a paper on any sports subject that I wanted. Naturally, I decided to write something about football. Looking around the league, it was interesting to see how many teams have drafted quarterbacks that do not pan into NFL successes. Quarterbacks like JaMarcus Russell flame out, while Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn never get a chance. Other players like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady thrive. What’s the reasoning? Is there some way of predicting NFL success by just looking at college success?

It turns out, yeah, there’s a way of determining a quarterback’s potential success. Others have already written on the subject and they’ve done a pretty solid job of evaluating this subject. However, I wanted to come up with a new metric, so I came up with a 100 point scoring system, based on 5 qualifications. When I wrote the paper, I hadn’t fully ironed out my scoring system, so some of my numbers have changed, but the point still remains on the prospects.

The paper is over 20 pages. It’s copied and pasted from Microsoft Word so it might have an odd format, but it’s all after the jump. Be ready. I hope you enjoy reading!

Read it all after the jump!

2nd Half of the Season: How Does the Patriots Defense Compare?

A lot has been said about the Patriots’ youthful defense and how much they’ve grown over the course of the season. It’s clear that this defense is different from the defense as the beginning of the season and I’ve already written about how the secondary has clearly evolved. But what about the defense as a whole? How has the defensive unit been producing and playing over the last half of the season? It seems convenient that the Browns debacle was the 8th game of the season, which set up for the Patriots 8-0 close to the year. How have the Patriots played during this period?

Here are some facts:

The Patriots are the only team to go 8-0 in the second half of the season.

Six of those victories came against teams who finished the season 4-4 or greater, meaning the Patriots had success against strong teams.

The Patriots have such a terrible “yards against” defense because they score so much- the opposing team always gets the ball back with lots of yards in front of them.

So how has the Patriots defense played as a unit in the second half of the season? You’d be surprised at how well they stack up to the rest of the league.

Take a look at the numbers after the jump!

Draft Pick-by-Pick Contract Analysis: What should we expect?

It appears as if the Patriots are itching to get their drafted players’ contracts out of the way as fast as possible. What should the accountants expect to write down in the books? (2009 numbers courtesy of Mac’s Football Blog)

27th – Devin McCourty

• 2009 Same Pick Contract: RB, Donald Brown – 5-years, $12.835M
• Expected 2010 Contract: 5 Years, $13.13M

42nd – Rob Gronkowski

• 2009 Same Pick Contract: CB, Jairus Byrd – 4-years, $4.225m
• Expected 2010 Contract: 4 Years, $4.322M

53rd – Jermaine Cunningham

• 2009 Same Pick Contract: RB, LeSean McCoy – 4-years, $3.497M
• Expected 2010 Contract: 4 Years, $3.577M

Which New England Patriots Draftee Will have the biggest Rookie impact?

Lists are good. Lists are fun. Whatever they’re founded upon, they’re usually backed up by 100% opinion, so here’s my opinion as to which players the New England Patriots drafted in the 2010 draft will have the largest impact as a rookie.

1. Brandon Spikes, Inside Linebacker, 62nd Overall (2nd round). I believe that Spikes will be the only rookie (apart from Punter Zoltan Mesko) to step into a full time starter’s role. Spikes will play ILB next to Jerod Mayo and see at least 75% of the defensive snaps. His lack of “speed” will more than be made up for with his high intelligence and his quickness. He’ll be a run stopper on the defensive line and will allow Mayo  more freedom to make other plays.

2. Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, 42nd Overall (2nd round). The Gronk will be the second most impactful rookie. He won’t be the full time starter- I expect him to split plays with veteran Alge Crumpler- so that’s why I place Spikes first. Gronk will still pick up a handful of red zone touchdowns and will consistently move the chains between the twenties. Look for a solid year of blocking, receiving and scoring from our tight end.